Are you facing a complex problem at work or home?
Maybe you have recently taken on a new project that seems incredibly daunting.
Perhaps you are embroiled in personal conflict that seemingly has no end.
Maybe you have recently taken on a new project that seems incredibly daunting.
Perhaps you are embroiled in personal conflict that seemingly has no end.
These sorts of situations are incredibly complex. There are so many variables and an almost infinite amount of possible solutions or risks. At these times it’s tempting to employ complex, well researched and highly conscious problem-solving strategies. Unfortunately this is too often the wrong decision-making process when tackling complex problems.
Consider this simple equation:
Complexity (problem) X Complexity (strategy) = Complexity2 (solution)
Consider this simple equation:
Complexity (problem) X Complexity (strategy) = Complexity2 (solution)
The more complex a problem, the greater the need for a simple solution.
Gerd Gigerenzer, best-selling author and Director at the Max Planck Institute urges consideration of simple problem solving strategies as evidenced in his recent studies of clinicians diagnosing severity of coronary attacks. Gigerenzer’s team viewed the difference between the heart disease predictive instrument (a highly complex chart that relied upon over 50 probabilities and long formulas) and the use of a fast and frugal tree (a system which uses simple yes/no answers) when considering if patients should be admitted to ICU.
The results were mind-blowing. The fast and frugal tree not only ranked
better than the complex and highly sophisticated heart disease predictive instrument; it blew it off the charts!
In this case, knowing when to admit patients showing symptoms of possible heart failure to ICU (very complex problem) was best answered by some simple yes/no questions rather than a complex mathematical computation.
So next time you are faced with a complex situation, ignore the trend towards complexity in your problem solving (which just multiplies the overall complexity), and employ a simple solution. It’s quicker, easier, and far more likely to produce the best results.
Gerd Gigerenzer, best-selling author and Director at the Max Planck Institute urges consideration of simple problem solving strategies as evidenced in his recent studies of clinicians diagnosing severity of coronary attacks. Gigerenzer’s team viewed the difference between the heart disease predictive instrument (a highly complex chart that relied upon over 50 probabilities and long formulas) and the use of a fast and frugal tree (a system which uses simple yes/no answers) when considering if patients should be admitted to ICU.
The results were mind-blowing. The fast and frugal tree not only ranked
better than the complex and highly sophisticated heart disease predictive instrument; it blew it off the charts!In this case, knowing when to admit patients showing symptoms of possible heart failure to ICU (very complex problem) was best answered by some simple yes/no questions rather than a complex mathematical computation.
So next time you are faced with a complex situation, ignore the trend towards complexity in your problem solving (which just multiplies the overall complexity), and employ a simple solution. It’s quicker, easier, and far more likely to produce the best results.
Warm wishes,
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